Analysis indicates that early compliance hedging, alongside elevated policy uncertainty over the next 18 months, has continued to weigh on activity in the Australian carbon market, with traded volumes for the 2025 compliance year on track for their first fall in 5 years. While spot trading was bolstered by increased SMC activity last week, we expect recent trading ranges to be tested by near term dynamics.
RepuTex’s Carbon Weekly report breaks down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.
Early hedging and review uncertainty sees 2025 compliance market on track for first volume decrease in 5 years
As we describe in our latest Market Monthly review for January, published today, traded volumes for the 2025 compliance year (April 2025 – to end March 2026) are on track for their first fall in 5 years due to early compliance hedging, and hesitancy for longer-term positioning on uncertainty surrounding the FY26/27 Safeguard Mechanism review.
Spot activity in the Australian carbon markethas now seen two of the lowest totals in the past 18 months over January (1.4M)
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