Carbon Markets

What impact will a net-zero emissions target have on forecast ACCU prices?

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • The Australian carbon market is undergoing a “fundamental repricing” on the prospect of a national net-zero emissions goal;
  • Prices for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) could more than double by 2030, rising to a range of $20-45/t
  • While a net-zero target will be a supportive factor for local prices, offsets are unlikely to be used as a permanent replacement for emissions reductions. This could result in more muted demand, and prices at the lower end of the anticipated range.

In our latest Carbon Market Outlook, published today, we present our expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices, supply, and demand from 2021-30, including scenarios for the adoption of a net-zero emissions target for industry.

In analysing the expected impact of a net-zero target, we model three scenarios for ACCU price development, differing with respect to the prioritisation of internal abatement (emissions reduction) activities over external abatement (offsets), and the subsequent level of demand for ACCU offsets from voluntary and compliance sources.

Summary of modelled scenarios

In this outlook, we consider three scenarios for

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Become a Carbon Insider today

Unlock our latest analysis, briefings and price information with our new Carbon Insider service.

Click below to see our plans.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    How do international policy developments impact the Australian carbon market?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    While Australia’s climate policy malaise continues, international climate activity continues to build, with the EU […]

    Research Insights | July 23rd, 2021
  • Carbon Markets

    ALERT: Australian CO2 spot price hits $21.50, forward activity picks up

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The spot price for Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) continues to break new ground, reaching […]

    Research Insights | July 21st, 2021
  • Carbon Markets

    13th ERF Auction date announced, but expectations remain muted

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Clean Energy Regulator has announced that the 13th Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) Auction will […]

    Research Insights | July 19th, 2021
  • Carbon Markets

    PRICE REPORT: Australian Carbon Offset Market Report: July 5 – 16, 2021

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our latest Australian Carbon Offset Market Report has now been published. The Australian […]

    Research Insights | July 19th, 2021
  • Carbon Markets

    RECORDING: Could the Australian carbon offset price eventually “do a Europe”?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    One of the key drivers of record EUA prices is the increasing role of investors, […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | July 13th, 2021
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone