Carbon Markets

What impact will a net-zero emissions target have on forecast ACCU prices?

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  • The Australian carbon market is undergoing a “fundamental repricing” on the prospect of a national net-zero emissions goal;
  • Prices for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) could more than double by 2030, rising to a range of $20-45/t
  • While a net-zero target will be a supportive factor for local prices, offsets are unlikely to be used as a permanent replacement for emissions reductions. This could result in more muted demand, and prices at the lower end of the anticipated range.

In our latest Carbon Market Outlook, published today, we present our expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices, supply, and demand from 2021-30, including scenarios for the adoption of a net-zero emissions target for industry.

In analysing the expected impact of a net-zero target, we model three scenarios for ACCU price development, differing with respect to the prioritisation of internal abatement (emissions reduction) activities over external abatement (offsets), and the subsequent level of demand for ACCU offsets from voluntary and compliance sources.

Summary of modelled scenarios

In this outlook, we consider three scenarios for

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