Carbon Markets
Average price likely to fall at third ERF auction, yet upside potential remains
RepuTex today released its outlook for the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, presenting our ‘reference case’ estimates in line with our ERF Auction Simulation Tool. 290 projects are currently […]
Australian carbon price (2018-30)
ERF price simulations
Ahead of each ERF auction, RepuTex presents its forward looking simulations of auction price outcomes. Findings are drawn from our ERF Auction Simulation Tool, which simulates reverse auction process by […]
Emissions data
Supply & demand data
Beware the “bid plateau” at ERF III – The risk of ‘bidding the average price’
While on the surface, the first two ERF auctions appeared to be similar – contracting a comparable amount of ACCUs for a similar amount of money – analysis indicates that […]
What’s in store for the third Emissions Reduction Fund auction?
While the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction had potential to be much larger than the first, high competition led to only 1 in 3 projects successfully winning contracts, with larger […]
Australia’s “low-cost” ACCU Opportunity – Our ACCU Supply Cost Curve
While the government has set a modest target to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a common assumption is that it is not possible – […]
Government rhetoric – not policy – is key regulatory impediment
Ahead of the federal election, climate policy remains an Achilles heel for the Coalition, with Australia’s growing national emissions profile, and the prospect of a 9-12 month demand gap over […]
No peak in sight? National emissions climb through 2020
The government’s latest emissions projections were released in late December, along with an update to the NGGI for FY 2014-15, providing more detailed insight into the downgrading of Australia’s abatement […]
Back to the Future? The ALP’s “soft-start” Emissions Trading Scheme
Following the release of its indicative target to reduce emissions by 45 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) is expected to provide further detail […]
ALERT: Goodbye CERs? Paris Accord may impact offset use
After two decades of diplomatic promise and failed outcomes, the Paris COP has delivered a landmark agreement to limit global warming to below 2 degrees, beating expectations by delivering a […]
ALERT: Looking ahead to ERF III – Powering up…or Down?
On Friday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced that the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on April 27-28, with the Clean Energy Regulator also announcing that auction […]
UPDATE: The Price of Emissions Growth – Accounting to 2020
The government’s revised emissions projections, to be released next week, are expected to indicate that Australia’s abatement challenge has again fallen, with Greg Hunt commenting that Australia’s abatement task is […]
UPDATE: Behind the numbers – a closer look at ERF auction II
The Clean Energy Regulator yesterday published its results for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, with the Regulator contracting 45,451,010 million tonnes (Mt) of abatement at an average price […]
ANALYST ALERT: Bidding set to begin at second ERF auction
Bidding will open on Wednesday for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, which will run from November 4-5, operated by the Clean Energy Regulator. Below, we outline our expectations […]
ANALYST UPDATE: “Two phase” safeguard scheme emerging
Last Thursday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt lodged the administrative rules for the operation of the Emissions Reduction Fund “Safeguard Mechanism”, the final component of the government’s Direct Action Plan policy. […]
IN FOCUS: What could be the impact of the variable auction rule at ERF II
The Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) Auction Guidelines recently released by the Clean Energy Regulator contained a new rule guiding how much abatement the CER may buy at the second ERF […]
ALERT: Same same, but different? The short & long-game
Last night’s change of Liberal Party leadership and the elevation of new Prime Minister, Malcom Turnbull, is likely to have a range of implications for Australian climate policy. We examine […]