Carbon Markets

UPDATE: Fear of “Phantom CACs” pushes market higher as CER data highlights known supply risks

Recent media scrutiny into the ACCU market pushed prices to a 7-month low last week before prices lifted on the release of the fourth carbon abatement contract (CAC) exit window results, and increasing uncertainty around “Phantom CACs”.

In this Carbon Weekly report, we break down activity in the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets (spot and derivatives) over the past week, including key trends and drivers, our latest pricing and benchmarks, and our daily forward curves.

Market rallies following results of fourth CAC exit window

Total traded volumes across the Australian exchange-traded and OTC carbon markets rose to 1.3M last week, 29% above our six-month rolling average of 933k.

Spot traded volumes accounted for 59% of total activity, at 727k (+270k WoW) on the week, led by Generic No-Avoided Deforestation (No-AD) ACCUs (62%), followed by HIR ACCUs (19%) and Generic ACCUs (19%).

The sell-off proved short lived, with pricing slowly climbing on moderate volumes back above $34/t – a level that has consistently held as a floor throughout 2025.

The market rallied further on Friday following the announcement of the outcomes of the fourth pilot exit windowby the Clean Energy Regulator, concern over the non-delivery risk of large carbon

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