• UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth Emissions Reduction Fund auction

    RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December 6-7. In line with auction five, we believe negative sentiment will again undermine the sixth […]

  • INSIGHTS: ACCU prices rise, but poor ERF result reflects negative market sentiment

    The fifth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction was held on April 5–6, with 31 contracts entered into by the Clean Energy Regulator (Regulator) for the delivery of just 11 million […]

  • INSIGHTS: Show me the money! Interest slumps in ERF, but ACCU prices set to rise

    The fifth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will take place on April 5–6, with $440 million in remaining in the government’s initial funding tranche. Just 17 new projects have been […]

  • ALERT: Release of ERF Auction Five ACCU Price Outlook

    Dear Subscriber, We have published our pricing outlook for the fifth Emissions Reduction Fund auction. To access this Auction Outlook, please click here >> Findings are drawn from our ERF Auction […]

  • REPORT: Low ERF price environment slows ACCU supply

    The fourth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction was held on the 16 and 17 November 2016, with 47 contracts entered into by the Clean Energy Regulator (Regulator) for the delivery […]

  • Media Release: Interest cools at fourth Emissions Reduction Fund auction

    MELBOURNE, November 24, 2016 – Following the release of today’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction results, below, we summarise the key outcomes and implications. KEY OUTCOMES OF AUCTION FOUR The […]

  • Service Alert: Release of ERF Auction Four Outlook

    Dear subscriber, We have published our outlook for the fourth Emissions Reduction Fund auction. Analysis models nine scenarios for the fourth ERF auction, enabling proponents to better understand how auction […]

  • Media Release: Price of carbon likely to rise as final call looms for ERF

    MELBOURNE, November 8, 2016 – Analysis by energy and carbon advisory firm, RepuTex, indicates that the average price of carbon contracts under the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) is likely to […]

  • Know your ERF – Auction Four Pricing & Bidding Risk Analysis

    Analysis indicates that the average price of carbon contracts under the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) is likely to rise at the fourth auction, to be held next week, driven by […]

  • ERF Auction Four: ACCU contract prices likely to push higher at ERF IV

    The Clean Energy Regulator has announced that the fourth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on the 16-17th of November 2016. The Regulator has also announced new auction […]

  • INSIGHTS: ACCUs rise to $14 at ERF III, bullish outlook for Auction IV

    Modelling indicates the ‘highest clearing price’ for ACCUs grew to around $14 at the third ERF auction – a 40 per cent premium on the average price of abatement ($10.23) […]

  • ‘Mega projects’ drive ERF close to floor, but price rebound ahead?

    The Clean Energy Regulator yesterday published the results of the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, with 50.47 million credits contracted at an average price of $10.23. In line with […]

  • Average price likely to fall at third ERF auction, yet upside potential remains

    RepuTex today released its outlook for the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, presenting our ‘reference case’ estimates in line with our ERF Auction Simulation Tool. 290 projects are currently […]

  • ERF price simulations

    Ahead of each ERF auction, RepuTex presents its forward looking simulations of auction price outcomes. Findings are drawn from our ERF Auction Simulation Tool, which simulates reverse auction process by […]

  • Beware the “bid plateau” at ERF III – The risk of ‘bidding the average price’

    While on the surface, the first two ERF auctions appeared to be similar – contracting a comparable amount of ACCUs for a similar amount of money – analysis indicates that […]

  • What’s in store for the third Emissions Reduction Fund auction?

    While the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction had potential to be much larger than the first, high competition led to only 1 in 3 projects successfully winning contracts, with larger […]

  • Introducing the RepuTex ERF Auction Simulation Tool

    RepuTex’s proprietary ERF Auction Simulation Tool replicates the operation of the ERF reverse auction bidding system by modelling a series of auction scenarios and sensitivities, arriving at our upper and lower pricing bounds […]

  • A 9-12 month ‘demand gap’ likely in Australia as uncertainty grows

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, speaking to The Australian on Monday, stated that the budget allocation for the government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) would not be extended beyond the initial $2.55 […]

  • ALERT: Looking ahead to ERF III – Powering up…or Down?

    On Friday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced that the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on April 27-28, with the Clean Energy Regulator also announcing that auction […]

  • UPDATE: Behind the numbers – a closer look at ERF auction II

    The Clean Energy Regulator yesterday published its results for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, with the Regulator contracting 45,451,010 million tonnes (Mt) of abatement at an average price […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: Bidding set to begin at second ERF auction

    Bidding will open on Wednesday for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, which will run from November 4-5, operated by the Clean Energy Regulator. Below, we outline our expectations […]

  • IN FOCUS: What could be the impact of the variable auction rule at ERF II

    The Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) Auction Guidelines recently released by the Clean Energy Regulator contained a new rule guiding how much abatement the CER may buy at the second ERF […]

  • ON POINT: CER seeks to tighten ERF spread…Friday night lights.

    Last Friday saw the late release of a series of reports, including new Auction Guidelines ahead of the next Emissions Reduction Fund auction in November, the release of the Review […]

  • UPDATE: Riding the ACCU Wave at ERF Auction II

    The Clean Energy Regulator recently announced that the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction (ERF II) will take place on November 4 and 5, in approximately 10 weeks. The ‘cut-off’ date […]

  • ALERT: Industry vs. CFI – Second ERF auction announced

    The Clean Energy Regulator today announced that the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction will take place on Wednesday November 4 and 5, 2015, in approximately 12 weeks. The cut-off date […]

  • IN FOCUS: ERF auction looming, or just a nervous twitch?

    ERF Project Registrations: October 2014 – July 2015  AUCTION LOOMING, OR JUST A NERVOUS TWITCH? Over the past three weeks 73 projects have been registered under the Emissions Reduction Fund […]

  • MARKET UPDATE: Goodbye ERF price cap, hello “floating” price?

    The Clean Energy Regulator has noted a preference for the next ERF auction to take place when a minimum number of bidders are registered to supply enough abatement to ensure […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: Out of Gas? Demand gap likely in 2016

    Due to changes allowing the longer duration of carbon abatement contract periods, we anticipate amendments to the allocation of ERF funding at next week’s Federal Budget, with expenditure forecast to decrease […]

  • AUCTION REVIEW: ERF bidders sell themselves short (PDF)

    RepuTex analysis indicates that many bidders – particularly larger projects bidding over 500,000 Australian Carbon Credit Units – may have sold themselves short at the first Emissions Reduction Fund auction […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: Benchmark price mismatch in ERF Auction 1

    The Clean Energy Regulator today published its results for the first Emissions Reduction Fund auction, with the Regulator contracting more than 47 million tonnes of abatement at an average abatement […]