ERF Auction Four: ACCU contract prices likely to push higher at ERF IV

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The Clean Energy Regulator has announced that the fourth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on the 16-17th of November 2016. The Regulator has also announced new auction purchasing rules and the establishment of a consultation process on the proposed purchasing of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) outside of the auction process.

Below, we summarise the announcements made by the Regulator and re-state our price and supply expectations for auction four.

Date for ERF auction four announced

The fourth ERF auction will be held on November 16-17, 2016, maintaining the Regulator’s semi-annual auction schedule. New projects must be registered by October 4, 2016. Auction results will be published on Thursday November 24.

Change to ‘variable volume rule’ may lower clearing threshold

New auction guidelines published by the Regulator provide additional flexibility for the Regulator to select the volume of abatement it will accept at each auction. At Auction three, the “variable volume rule” enabled the Regulator to purchase between 50 and 100 per cent of eligible abatement, contracting in line with best value based on price and volume.

New changes to the clearing rule will now see bid(s) that “straddle” the 50 per cent of eligible volume able to be selected at the discretion of the Regulator. This would have the effect of enabling the Regulator to contract less than half of the ACCUs offered in the event that the project straddling 50 per cent of volume offered is not selected.

Depending on the number of ACCUs with bids that straddle 50 per cent of eligible volume, the impact of the rule may vary. For example, if a very large project straddles the 50 per cent volume point, the minimum clearing rule would be set below 50 per cent, potentially leading to less abatement

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