Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly CMO presents our detailed modelling and expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices over a 10-year horizon to 2035, and underlying supply-demand fundamentals.
This Scenario Analysis report accompanies our quarterly Carbon Market Outlook (CMO), modelling alternative price pathways and sensitivities for the development of the Australian carbon market.
Our core scenarios investigate alternatives for the “pace” and “scale” of onsite decarbonisation by Safeguard Mechanism facilities – the material driver of medium-term carbon credit demand. Specifically, we consider three decarbonisation pathways for covered sectors, including our Progressive, Accelerated and Slow decarbonisation scenarios.
Additional policy and market sensitivities are also depicted, accounting for the upper bound of Australia’s 2035 emissions target (70% national emissions target by 2035).
Other links:
- Summary Report: Refer to our “Summary Report” (15 pages) for a short-form overview of key pricing and fundamental outcomes.
- Technical Report: Refer to our “Technical Report” (85 pages) for detailed Central Case modelling of supply-demand fundamentals and prices.
These reports are published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Access the reports below, or take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.
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