ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed to increase Australia’s existing emissions reduction ambition under the Kyoto Protocol.

In line with the government’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), in 2005 Australia’s emissions were 608 million tonnes (Mt), meaning that emissions will need to fall to 450 Mt by 2030 to meet the 26 per cent target, or 438 Mt to meet the higher 28 per cent reduction (The government refers to emissions figures of 612 Mt in 2005 and 441-453 in 2030, indicating an expected update to the NGGI).

Australian emissions are lower than 2005 levels due to reduced deforestation, lower electricity demand and the increased take up of renewable energy, including residential solar, since that time. We project Australia’s new 2030 target is equivalent to a cut of 21 per cent against current levels, or just 118 million tonnes. This represents a decrease of just 8 Mt per annum (Mtpa) over the next 15 years.

In meeting the target, the government proposes that the Emissions Reduction Fund will remain the cornerstone policy, in collaboration with the safeguard mechanism, energy productivity plan, technology improvements and existing Kyoto carry-over.

The Prime Minister has noted the government expects a $200 million spend per annum over the next ten years in order to meet the target. This largely in line with our earlier Market Outlook, specifically the delivery of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) contracted at earlier auctions. Notably, in line with this Outlook

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Become a Carbon Insider today

Unlock our latest analysis, briefings and price information with our new Carbon Insider service.

Click below to see our plans.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Buyers ‘rush to regeneration’ ahead of ACCU review – but are HIR projects without risk?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The price for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) has continued to drift sideways, with spot […]

    Research Insights | July 4th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    REPORT: Modelling Potential Futures for Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism (Carbon Market Institute)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex has been engaged by the Carbon Market Institute (CMI) to analyse the current operation […]

    Research Insights | June 30th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Nature-based ACCUs dominate as divergence between broker and bilateral spot price grows

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The spot price for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) fell 0.7% on the week, with […]

    Research Insights | June 13th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Carbon Offset Market Report – Positive sentiment returns as ACCU buyers favour regeneration over land-based avoidance projects

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The change of government has proven to be supportive for the local ACCU market, with […]

    Research Insights | May 30th, 2022
  • Carbon Markets

    INSIGHTS: Election 2022 – Market impacts, and where to next for the ALP’s “Safeguard Mechanism 2.0”?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Federal Election has been run and won, with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) confident […]

    Research Insights | May 24th, 2022
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications