ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed to increase Australia’s existing emissions reduction ambition under the Kyoto Protocol.

In line with the government’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), in 2005 Australia’s emissions were 608 million tonnes (Mt), meaning that emissions will need to fall to 450 Mt by 2030 to meet the 26 per cent target, or 438 Mt to meet the higher 28 per cent reduction (The government refers to emissions figures of 612 Mt in 2005 and 441-453 in 2030, indicating an expected update to the NGGI).

Australian emissions are lower than 2005 levels due to reduced deforestation, lower electricity demand and the increased take up of renewable energy, including residential solar, since that time. We project Australia’s new 2030 target is equivalent to a cut of 21 per cent against current levels, or just 118 million tonnes. This represents a decrease of just 8 Mt per annum (Mtpa) over the next 15 years.

In meeting the target, the government proposes that the Emissions Reduction Fund will remain the cornerstone policy, in collaboration with the safeguard mechanism, energy productivity plan, technology improvements and existing Kyoto carry-over.

The Prime Minister has noted the government expects a $200 million spend per annum over the next ten years in order to meet the target. This largely in line with our earlier Market Outlook, specifically the delivery of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) contracted at earlier auctions. Notably, in line with this Outlook

Restricted Access

To continue reading this post, register below.

Continue reading this article

To continue reading this free article, simply click “register now” to access our free insights & events.

Access is free, and instant! Sign up below.

Register Now

Sign up to receive our research alerts

Create a free account to access our free insights and event invitations, and receive our research alerts via email. Access is complimentary, and instant. Sign up below:

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • The King Review: Government steps toward a ‘grey’ baseline and credit scheme

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | May 19th, 2020
  • UPDATE: Australia’s Expert Panel Climate Policy Review – What to Expect?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    2020 is shaping up as (another) key year for Australian climate policy, with the government’s […]

    Research Insights | May 13th, 2020
  • Where to for wholesale electricity prices under a 1.5-2°C “Step Change” scenario?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In part two of this two-part series we discuss our long-term expectations for wholesale electricity […]

    Research Insights | April 28th, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40 (Q3 FY20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our Q3 FY19-20 Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term price development […]

    Research Insights | April 17th, 2020
  • Could COVID-19 pandemic create a ‘perfect storm’ for wholesale electricity prices?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In part one of this two-part series we discuss our medium-term expectations for the National […]

    Analyst Update, Research Insights | April 16th, 2020
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • Renewable Energy

    Learn more about our services for wind and solar developers
  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications