ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed to increase Australia’s existing emissions reduction ambition under the Kyoto Protocol.

In line with the government’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), in 2005 Australia’s emissions were 608 million tonnes (Mt), meaning that emissions will need to fall to 450 Mt by 2030 to meet the 26 per cent target, or 438 Mt to meet the higher 28 per cent reduction (The government refers to emissions figures of 612 Mt in 2005 and 441-453 in 2030, indicating an expected update to the NGGI).

Australian emissions are lower than 2005 levels due to reduced deforestation, lower electricity demand and the increased take up of renewable energy, including residential solar, since that time. We project Australia’s new 2030 target is equivalent to a cut of 21 per cent against current levels, or just 118 million tonnes. This represents a decrease of just 8 Mt per annum (Mtpa) over the next 15 years.

In meeting the target, the government proposes that the Emissions Reduction Fund will remain the cornerstone policy, in collaboration with the safeguard mechanism, energy productivity plan, technology improvements and existing Kyoto carry-over.

The Prime Minister has noted the government expects a $200 million spend per annum over the next ten years in order to meet the target. This largely in line with our earlier Market Outlook, specifically the delivery of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) contracted at earlier auctions. Notably, in line with this Outlook

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET MONTHLY: Spot and derivatives volumes fall to seasonal lows in June, market turns to options over H1

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Total traded volumes of over 2.1 million ACCUs were reported via our daily Survey Panel […]

    Research Insights | July 7th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: FY26 opens with a surge of activity on release of latest Carbon Market Outlook, bearish price forecast

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Total volumes across the Australian exchange-traded and over the counter (OTC) carbon markets surged to […]

    Research Insights | July 7th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    RECORDING: ACCU prices to remain under $100/t to 2035, landfill gas extension to materially flatten uplift

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    In May, DCCEEW published a new draft landfill gas method outlining updated rules for crediting […]

    Research Insights, Webinars | July 1st, 2025
  • Carbon Markets Outlook

    OUTLOOK: Australian carbon price, supply & demand outlook (ACCUs/SMCs) June 2025

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. […]

    Market Outlooks, Research Insights | June 30th, 2025
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: ACCU prices remain tightly rangebound, Default Prescribed Unit Price set for FY25 compliance costs

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    ACCU spot prices remained tightly rangebound last week, with our Generic ACCU (Market Close) assessment […]

    Research Insights | June 30th, 2025
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • EnergyIQ platform

    Access the latest market data with our EnergyIQ platform
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications