ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed to increase Australia’s existing emissions reduction ambition under the Kyoto Protocol.

In line with the government’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI), in 2005 Australia’s emissions were 608 million tonnes (Mt), meaning that emissions will need to fall to 450 Mt by 2030 to meet the 26 per cent target, or 438 Mt to meet the higher 28 per cent reduction (The government refers to emissions figures of 612 Mt in 2005 and 441-453 in 2030, indicating an expected update to the NGGI).

Australian emissions are lower than 2005 levels due to reduced deforestation, lower electricity demand and the increased take up of renewable energy, including residential solar, since that time. We project Australia’s new 2030 target is equivalent to a cut of 21 per cent against current levels, or just 118 million tonnes. This represents a decrease of just 8 Mt per annum (Mtpa) over the next 15 years.

In meeting the target, the government proposes that the Emissions Reduction Fund will remain the cornerstone policy, in collaboration with the safeguard mechanism, energy productivity plan, technology improvements and existing Kyoto carry-over.

The Prime Minister has noted the government expects a $200 million spend per annum over the next ten years in order to meet the target. This largely in line with our earlier Market Outlook, specifically the delivery of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) contracted at earlier auctions. Notably, in line with this Outlook

Restricted Access

To continue reading this post, register below.

Continue reading this article

To continue reading this free article, simply click “register now” to access our free insights & events.

Access is free, and instant! Sign up below.

Register Now

Sign up to receive our research alerts

Create a free account to access our free insights and event invitations, and receive our research alerts via email. Access is complimentary, and instant. Sign up below:

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon spot price climbs to 10-month high as pressure builds on government

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Australian carbon spot price climbed to $16.63 per tonne on Monday, a 10-month high, […]

    Research Insights | January 19th, 2021
  • Trading range narrows for Australian carbon spot price

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The Australian carbon spot price ended the 2020 calendar year down 4.5 per cent year-on-year, […]

    Research Insights | January 13th, 2021
  • Scenarios for the replacement of the Liddell power station

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    RepuTex has been engaged by Greenpeace Australia Pacific to analyse the impact of scenarios to […]

    Research Insights | November 27th, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Dear Subscriber, Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term price development in […]

    Research Insights | November 26th, 2020
  • INSIGHTS: What is the current Australian carbon spot price?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Amid a recent surge in carbon neutrality pledges, many businesses are looking to offset the […]

    Research Insights | November 25th, 2020
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • Renewable Energy

    Learn more about our services for wind and solar developers
  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications