Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon compliance and voluntary markets has now been published.
This quarterly CMO presents our expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices and underlying supply-demand fundamentals over a 10-year horizon.
Analysis presents our Central Case view and High/Low scenarios which evaluate the plausible spread of on-site industrial decarbonisation by Safeguard Mechanism covered facilities – the material driver of carbon credit demand and long-term price development in the Australian market. Specifically, scenarios evaluate:
- Central Case (Progressive industry transition): Price and market development accounting for an incremental industry decarbonisation (moderate abatement costs), prioritising low-cost improvements and upgrades ahead of large-scale projects.
- High Scenario (Slow industry transition): Price and market development accounting for a slow industry decarbonisation (high abatement costs), focusing on low-cost improvements and updates with a higher return/faster payback.
- Low Scenario (Accelerated industry transition): Price and market development accounting for an accelerated industry decarbonisation (low abatement costs) corresponding to the full yet plausible emissions reduction opportunity.
Analysis also considers key sensitivities and the material market and regulatory factors impacting modelled outcomes over the forecast period.
This report is published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.