Carbon Markets Outlook

OUTLOOK: Long-term Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook (ACCUs and SMCs)

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon compliance and voluntary markets has now been published.

This quarterly CMO presents our expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices and underlying supply-demand fundamentals over a 10-year horizon.

Analysis presents our Central Case view and High/Low scenarios which evaluate the plausible spread of on-site industrial decarbonisation by Safeguard Mechanism covered facilities – the material driver of carbon credit demand and long-term price development in the Australian market. Specifically, scenarios evaluate:

  • Central Case (Progressive industry transition): Price and market development accounting for an incremental industry decarbonisation (moderate abatement costs), prioritising low-cost improvements and upgrades ahead of large-scale projects.
  • High Scenario (Slow industry transition): Price and market development accounting for a slow industry decarbonisation (high abatement costs), focusing on low-cost improvements and updates with a higher return/faster payback.
  • Low Scenario (Accelerated industry transition): Price and market development accounting for an accelerated industry decarbonisation (low abatement costs) corresponding to the full yet plausible emissions reduction opportunity.

Analysis also considers key sensitivities and the material market and regulatory factors impacting modelled outcomes over the forecast period.

This report is published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Generic and HIR prices rebound to mark recent highs, revised Environmental Plantings method released

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 17th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Spot prices hold stable on subdued activity, Dutton maintains opposition to 2030 emissions target

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 11th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET WRAP: ACCU derivatives contracting surges to record high behind increasing forward activity

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Traded volumes across the Australian spot and forward markets reached a 15-month high of over […]

    Research Insights | June 6th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Sporadic trading leads to 13-month high in daily HIR volumes, lifting prices back toward $34/t

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 3rd, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    BRIEFING: Potential Impact of Landfill Gas Reform Options on ACCU Supply and Market Dynamics

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    On 3 May 2024, the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) […]

    Research Insights | May 27th, 2024
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone