OUTLOOK: Australian carbon price, supply, and demand outlook – Summary Report, Dec 2025

Our latest Carbon Market Outlook (CMO) for the Australian carbon market has now been published. This quarterly CMO presents our detailed modelling and expectations for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) and Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) prices over a 10-year horizon to 2035, and underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

Following the Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) newly announced permanent exit arrangement for Fixed Delivery Carbon Abatement Contracts (CACs), in this Outlook, we model expected impacts on the ACCU market, including the implications for available issuance and price development.

The below “Summary Report” (15 pages) provides a short-form overview of key pricing and fundamental outcomes.

Other links:

• Technical Report: Refer to our “Technical Report” (85 pages) for detailed Central Case modelling of supply-demand fundamentals and prices.
• Scenario Report: Refer to our accompanying “Scenario Report” for modelling of alternative price pathways and sensitivities.

These reports are published under our Australian Carbon Intelligence service. Access the reports below, or take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

REPUTEX_CMO_Long term carbon market outlook_Dec25_EXEC SUM

Data shows what’s happening. Our research insights explain why…

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