Electricity Outlook

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2020-40

Dear Subscriber,

Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term price development in the National Electricity Market (NEM) has now been published.

The AEO provides an outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each region of the NEM over medium- (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (annual to 2040); an outlook for LGC prices to 2040; forecast market outcomes such as change in capacity and generation mix; and analysis of the major factors impacting the market in the forecast period.

Modelling considers a Central Case for electricity price development in line with RepuTex’s view of the current transition of the energy industry and market drivers, along with an Alternative Case reflecting AEMO’s “Step Change” shift to renewable energy, accounting for faster technological improvements and more aggressive action on climate change in line with a “well below 2°C” Paris climate commitment (achieving net-zero emissions prior to 2050). Sensitivities are also considered as a complement to each scenario, helping to identify the magnitude of impact of key assumptions and understand pricing paths.

This report is published under our Australian Electricity Outlook service. Login below to access the report and technical modelling, or click here to more about our services for the Australian electricity market. 

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