Carbon Markets

OUTLOOK: NEM wholesale electricity and LGC price forecast 2024-43 (Jan-24)

Our latest Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for wholesale electricity and LGC prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) has now been published. The AEO is a quarterly outlook for price development in each region of the NEM over both medium-term (four years) and long-term horizons (20 years). The report contains:

  • an outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each region of the NEM (NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC), over medium- (quarterly average prices for the next 16 quarters) and long-term horizons (annual average prices to 2043);
  • an outlook for annual average LGC prices to 2030 including the potential interaction with forward Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices;
  • forecasts for market outcomes, such as change in capacity and generation mix;
  • detailed discussion of key input assumptions; and
  • analysis of the major factors impacting the electricity market in the forecast period.

The scenarios chosen for analysis in this report cover two potential pathways for the future transition of the NEM, aligned with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) updated 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP).

Specifically, we adopt the two “most likely” scenarios as defined by AEMO stakeholder engagement for the 2024 ISP. AEMO’s Step Change scenario (considered by stakeholders to be the ‘most likely’ scenario) is adopted as our Central Case forecast, modelling a rapid consumer-led transformation of the energy sector and co-ordinated economy-wide action. AEMO’s Progressive Change scenario is applied as our Alternative case, modelling less aggressive action on climate change by ratcheting up emissions reduction goals over time. Each scenario assumes a target of net zero emissions by 2050 is adopted, applying different timing pathways, with our Central Case scenario accounting for net-zero emissions by 2035, while the Alternative reaches net-zero emissions ‘just in time’.

Additional sensitivities are also considered, with an emphasis on fuel prices, demand and generator reliability, helping to identify the magnitude of impact of key assumptions and test specific decisions that may soon be taken.

This report is published under our Australian Electricity Intelligence service. Click below to access the report, or click here to take a tour of our EnergyIQ platform.

Restricted Access

This is a subscriber report. Please login to access this content.

Tour our EnergyIQ platform

RepuTex research insights and market data is published via our EnergyIQ platform.

Click below to learn more about our services.

Sign up for regular insights

LATEST UPDATES

  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Generic and HIR prices rebound to mark recent highs, revised Environmental Plantings method released

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 17th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Spot prices hold stable on subdued activity, Dutton maintains opposition to 2030 emissions target

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 11th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    MARKET WRAP: ACCU derivatives contracting surges to record high behind increasing forward activity

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Traded volumes across the Australian spot and forward markets reached a 15-month high of over […]

    Research Insights | June 6th, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    UPDATE: Sporadic trading leads to 13-month high in daily HIR volumes, lifting prices back toward $34/t

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    Our latest Carbon Weekly report has now been published, reviewing activity in the Australian and […]

    Research Insights | June 3rd, 2024
  • Carbon Markets

    BRIEFING: Potential Impact of Landfill Gas Reform Options on ACCU Supply and Market Dynamics

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    On 3 May 2024, the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) […]

    Research Insights | May 27th, 2024
  • Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone