Carbon Markets

RECORDING: Scenarios for ACCU offset prices by 2030 under net-zero emissions

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In this event, we discuss the outcomes of our latest quarterly outlook for Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices, supply and demand from 2021-30, including scenarios for the adoption of a net-zero emissions target for industry. Key topics include:

  • Overview of the Australian carbon market – What are the key components of the Australian carbon market and where is demand for ACCU offsets derived from?
  • Current ACCU spot prices and market dynamics – Discussion of current ACCU spot price dynamics and recent spot price trends;
  • The impact of a net-zero target for compliance companies – What could a net-zero emissions target mean for high emitting facilities, including safeguard mechanism baselines, and required annual emissions reductions to 2030.
  • The impact of a net-zero target for voluntary buyers – What could a net-zero target mean for companies voluntarily offsetting their emissions with local offsets.
  • Price forecasts and net-zero scenarios (FY21-30) – We present three scenarios for ACCU prices under net-zero emissions, differing with respect to balance between internal abatement activities and demand for external offsets.
  • Key takeaways and implications – What are the implications for market participants, such as compliance and voluntary buyers, investors, and project developers.
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