The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), accepting 21 of 26 recommendations to incentivise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement from industry.
Below, we summarise the key recommendations and provide initial analysis on what’s in, what’s out, and the implications for the Australian carbon market.
Crediting for emissions below safeguard baselines
As we noted in our latest Market Update, a key focus of the Expert Panel review is the development of rules to credit emissions reductions below Safeguard Mechanism baselines. Credits created under the proposed mechanism could then be used to meet compliance obligations under the Safeguard Mechanism, or be purchased by federal, state and territory governments, or via voluntary transactions.
As expected, new credits generated under scheme, potentially known as Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs), would be differentiated from Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) offsets. Crediting would be for ‘transformative’ abatement projects based on changes in emissions intensity rather than absolute emissions.
As noted in our earlier update, while the crediting of industry emissions intensity improvements may incentivise increased supply from the industrial sector, key issues remain with the demand component of the policy framework.
- While the proposal would establish a crediting mechanism similar to a ‘baseline and credit’ scheme, the elephant in the room continues to be the ‘baseline’ component of the framework, with Australia’s largest emitting facilities unaccountable for absolute emission increases (given emissions baselines reset annually to reflect actual production). Increases in absolute emissions therefore remain unchecked.
- The design of a separate emissions intensity crediting baseline, and the focus on ‘transformative’ projects, could mitigate the risk of a large influx of ‘automatic’ SMC issuance to facilities with headroom below their emissions reporting baseline.
- However, the crediting of emissions intensity improvements raises considerable additionality risks, with crediting to potentially reward ‘anyway’ projects for investment that does not represent additional abatement. As noted in earlier updates, we refer to these as ‘grey’ credits, with these units of lower environmental integrity due to the lower threshold for additionality.
- In addition, crediting reductions in emissions intensity improvements may result in the perverse outcome of paying high emitting businesses to invest in projects which increase absolute emissions, even if emissions intensity decreases.
The price of SMCs… A two-speed market is now likely
As we discussed in our earlier update, the limiting of newly created industry-credits to safeguard mechanism compliance (subject to any compliance obligation), or a separate class of credit eligible for the Climate Solutions Fund will result in the development of a ‘two-speed’ Australian carbon price, with different price bands reflecting the different value of abatement, additionality, time-value, and underlying costs of crediting relative to sequestration offset projects.
The Review notes that new SMCs could be purchased at a price set by the market or at a fixed price. The price may also be pegged to the prevailing ACCU price to reflect that SMCs are not bankable, and are not subject to strict additionality. As a result, lower quality grey credits would be expected to trade at a discount to high-value ACCUs, subject to underlying supply volumes and spot demand.
As noted, while the Expert Panel recommendations may support increased industry crediting, the low levels of demand under the safeguard mechanism framework and the relatively low quality of abatement will strongly impact price formation. While SMCs may potentially be used for Safeguard compliance, this is a nominal market given the lack of compliance obligations created under the safeguard framework. The lack of a large source of compliance demand is therefore the Achilles heel for SMCs as it is for the current ACCU market, limiting the development of a robust market or the incentivisation of large-scale emissions reductions.
Untapping the abatement value of LGCs?
The Review recognises the potential for Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) to increasingly be considered for use in carbon markets due to their implicit carbon abatement value. However, no direct link is proposed for the use of LGCs in the ERF or safeguard scheme, with application likely to be limited to voluntary markets.
The Panel proposes the adoption of a “carbon exchange rate” to reflect the carbon value of LGCs as either the average grid carbon intensity per MWh or the state-based grid average emission factor for the jurisdiction in which the generator is located.
As we modelled in August 2019, “Could LGCs deliver least cost external abatement?”, the use of LGCs as a form of carbon offset has the potential to reduce the marginal cost of external abatement for industry, while establishing a floor price for LGCs, and incentivising new investment to support renewable energy development. However, any hope for the transformation of the LGC market into a carbon linked scheme also remains tied to a robust source of demand being developed, or lack thereof.
The elephant in the room – more supply, no demand.
While the King Review lays out a sensible framework for improvements to Australia’s carbon market framework, subject to its ability to navigate concerns over the additionality of ‘grey’ SMCs, the elephant in the room remains the ability for large emitting companies to increase emissions, and update emissions baselines to reflect actual production, without triggering compliance obligations. Beyond the obvious implications for Australia’s emissions reductions objectives, this remains a key limit on any policy recalibration that seeks to incentivise supply, without addressing demand.
The RepuTex Team
Australian Energy Markets
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