Carbon Markets

UPDATE: Chubb Review focuses on improved governance, no material supply-side changes

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The final report of the Independent Review of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), led by Professor Ian Chubb, has today been released. The review makes 16 recommendations, focusing on improvements to the governance, structure, and transparency of the Australian carbon offset crediting scheme, with the integrity of key ACCU methodologies found to be generally “sound”.

While some stakeholders have suggested that moves to restore integrity to the ACCU market will lead to a marked reduction in ACCU supply, and a sharp increase in ACCU prices, we believe that outcomes of the Chubb Review will have a more nuanced impact on the supply landscape. As flagged in our most recent Carbon Market Outlook, potential reductions in crediting are expected to be offset by the annual growth profile of ACCU issuance, and the reality that many ‘at risk’ methods, such as Avoided Deforestation, are nearing the conclusion of their crediting periods and are therefore already assumed to cease crediting within our business-as-usual expectations.

In this update, we discuss the key outcomes of the Chubb Review, along with potential impacts on market prices and forward dynamics.

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