In this event, we discuss the outcomes of our latest quarterly Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO) for medium- and long-term wholesale price development in each region of the National Electricity Market (NEM). Key topics include:
- Current wholesale electricity price drivers – Discussion of the key influences on NEM price formation including collapsing fossil fuel prices, lower operational demand and the commissioning of large-scale renewable energy;
- Wholesale electricity price forecast (Central Case) – Where to for medium- and long-term wholesale electricity prices under current policy?
- Alternative Case considerations – The interaction between our Central case and Alternative case (step-change scenario)
RepuTex’s AEO provides an outlook for wholesale electricity prices for each region of the NEM over medium- (16 quarters) and long-term horizons (annual to 2040); along with an outlook for LGC prices; outcomes and the major factors impacting the market.
Modelling considers a Central Case for electricity price development in line with RepuTex’s view of the current transition of the energy industry and market drivers, along with an Alternative Case reflecting AEMO’s “Step Change” shift to renewable energy, accounting for faster technological improvements and more aggressive action on climate change in line with a “well below 2°C” Paris climate commitment (achieving net-zero emissions prior to 2050).