White Paper: Framing Australia’s Energy & Climate Policy to 2030

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

Following the release of the Climate Change Authority’s Special Review, which proposed a ‘toolkit’ of measures to meet Australia’s emissions target – but made few detailed recommendations – in this White Paper, we examine Australia’s abatement task through to 2030 and the policy settings needed to meet Australia’s emissions target.

IN SHORT:

  • The ECP Tool is available in four versions, including a free edition for public use and three subscriber versions. We apply the ECP Tool for illustrative purposes below.
  • Accounting for updated economic assumptions and state and federal policy, including new state RETs in ACT, SA, QLD and VIC, we estimate an Australian greenhouse gas abatement task of approximately 1 billion tonnes of CO2-e (2020-30), a 55% downgrade on government estimates (2,215 Mt).
  • National emissions will need to be reduced by 8 to 9 million tonnes of CO2-e (Mt) annually to meet Australia’s 26 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030.
  • Should industry be relied upon to deliver emissions reductions of this scale under the safeguard mechanism, we estimate an absolute baseline contraction of 5.4 per cent per annum after 2020, relative to current baselines, to meet the 2030 target.
  • In such a scenario, the largest emissions reduction contribution would fall on ‘growth sectors’ such as Aviation and Gas Extraction and Processing, with large coal-fired generators likely to avoid compliance obligations due falling electricity consumption.
  • For this reason a declining emissions intensity baseline (tCO2e/physical output) may be supported, allowing for emissions reductions via the improvement of the net intensity on a linear or convergence basis (i.e. to a variable point of best practice). In such an instance, the required rate of baseline decline is likely to be steeper, with a linear emissions intensity decline of approximately 6.8 per cent required to meet Australia’s 2030 abatement task.
  • Excluding safeguard sectors, aggressive policy settings would be required to meet Australia’s 2030 target, such as the tripling of ERF funding and generation from Solar PV, while electricity and vehicle efficiency would need to double from current levels.

To access this White Paper, please refer to the Downloads box below.

To learn more about the RepuTex Energy and Climate Policy Tool, or to launch the Free and Subscriber versions of the ECP Tool, please visit the ECP Tool homepage.

LATEST UPDATES

  • WEBINAR: Where to for Australian carbon offset prices under current policy?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers changes to its climate policy framework, including new Safeguard Mechanism […]

    Research Insights | July 13th, 2020
  • CO2 offset price of $30-100/t for Australia to reach and maintain net-zero emissions

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers major changes to its climate policy framework, including crediting Safeguard […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2020
  • OUTLOOK: Long-term carbon price, supply and demand outlook (Q4 FY19-20)

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    As the federal government considers major changes to its climate policy framework, including crediting Safeguard […]

    Research Insights | June 23rd, 2020
  • The King Review: Government steps toward a baseline and credit scheme

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), […]

    Analyst Alerts, Research Insights | May 19th, 2020
  • UPDATE: Australia’s Expert Panel Climate Policy Review – What to Expect?

    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

    2020 is shaping up as (another) key year for Australian climate policy, with the government’s […]

    Research Insights | May 13th, 2020
  • Download this free report

    To start your free download, simply fill in the below form. You will also receive our future updates, event invitations, and research insights by email.
    Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone
  • Quick Navigation

  • Electricity

    Learn more about our modelling and price outlooks for the NEM
  • Renewable Energy

    Learn more about our services for wind and solar developers
  • Carbon Market

    Learn more about our Australian carbon price and market analysis
  • Latest Insights

    View our latest articles, white papers, reports and publications