• WHITE PAPER: Modelling wind resource variability and spot market value in the NEM

    With the rapid expansion of wind energy production in Australia, the accurate assessment of wind resource variability has become of interest to project proponents and market stakeholders, with fluctuations in […]

  • INSIGHTS: Domestic offsets may be $5-10 under NEG – cheaper than international units

    As discussion increases over the role of domestic and international carbon credits in Australia, in this Insights article, we discuss our latest outlook for supply of Australian carbon credit units […]

  • ARTICLE: Measuring the cost of a 2°C target under the Paris Agreement

    Background In becoming a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the federal government has accepted the risk of a significant future liability as Australia begins to transform its economy. At the […]

  • ON POINT: Release of climate policy review – Industry emissions key roadblock

    On Friday the federal government released a discussion paper for public consultation as part of its 2017 review of climate change policies. Consultation will be held over the next 6 […]

  • INSIGHTS: Show me the money! Interest slumps in ERF, but ACCU prices set to rise

    The fifth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will take place on April 5–6, with $440 million in remaining in the government’s initial funding tranche. Just 17 new projects have been […]

  • ARTICLE: A cost curve for abatement & energy storage in the Australian power sector

    A quantitative study of emissions reductions in the Australian electricity sector, and the “full cost” for renewables to provide reliable energy supply, including energy storage technologies. To meet its current […]

  • ERF Auction Four: ACCU contract prices likely to push higher at ERF IV

    The Clean Energy Regulator has announced that the fourth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on the 16-17th of November 2016. The Regulator has also announced new auction […]

  • INSIGHTS: ACCUs rise to $14 at ERF III, bullish outlook for Auction IV

    Modelling indicates the ‘highest clearing price’ for ACCUs grew to around $14 at the third ERF auction – a 40 per cent premium on the average price of abatement ($10.23) […]

  • A 9-12 month ‘demand gap’ likely in Australia as uncertainty grows

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, speaking to The Australian on Monday, stated that the budget allocation for the government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) would not be extended beyond the initial $2.55 […]

  • ALERT: Goodbye CERs? Paris Accord may impact offset use

    After two decades of diplomatic promise and failed outcomes, the Paris COP has delivered a landmark agreement to limit global warming to below 2 degrees, beating expectations by delivering a […]

  • ALERT: Looking ahead to ERF III – Powering up…or Down?

    On Friday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced that the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on April 27-28, with the Clean Energy Regulator also announcing that auction […]

  • UPDATE: Behind the numbers – a closer look at ERF auction II

    The Clean Energy Regulator yesterday published its results for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, with the Regulator contracting 45,451,010 million tonnes (Mt) of abatement at an average price […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: Bidding set to begin at second ERF auction

    Bidding will open on Wednesday for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, which will run from November 4-5, operated by the Clean Energy Regulator. Below, we outline our expectations […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: “Two phase” safeguard scheme emerging

    Last Thursday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt lodged the administrative rules for the operation of the Emissions Reduction Fund “Safeguard Mechanism”, the final component of the government’s Direct Action Plan policy. […]

  • IN FOCUS: What could be the impact of the variable auction rule at ERF II

    The Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) Auction Guidelines recently released by the Clean Energy Regulator contained a new rule guiding how much abatement the CER may buy at the second ERF […]

  • ALERT: Same same, but different? The short & long-game

    Last night’s change of Liberal Party leadership and the elevation of new Prime Minister, Malcom Turnbull, is likely to have a range of implications for Australian climate policy. We examine […]

  • BRIEFING: Senate may add (baby) teeth to safeguard scheme

    The leniency of the newly released ERF Safeguard Mechanism draft rules has increased the prospect of a disallowance motion being brought forward in the Senate to quash, or strengthen, the […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: Safeguard leniency to dilute ACCU demand

    In our earlier Market Update, “ERF Safeguard Mechanism – Toothless Tiger…or Hidden Dragon?”, analysis indicated that approximately 85 facilities would be likely to face a compliance obligation under the proposed […]

  • ON POINT: CER seeks to tighten ERF spread…Friday night lights.

    Last Friday saw the late release of a series of reports, including new Auction Guidelines ahead of the next Emissions Reduction Fund auction in November, the release of the Review […]

  • UPDATE: 1,600Mt oversight? Australian abatement task (15-30)

    Analysis of new figures released by the Department of Environment indicates a significant disconnect between the emissions reduction potential of government policy, presented on Tuesday, and Australia’s expected greenhouse gas […]

  • ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

    The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed […]

  • ALERT: Industry vs. CFI – Second ERF auction announced

    The Clean Energy Regulator today announced that the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction will take place on Wednesday November 4 and 5, 2015, in approximately 12 weeks. The cut-off date […]

  • IN FOCUS: Emissions trends over the baseline period

    Below, we provide an extract from our latest Market Update, “Reviewing the ERF Safeguard Mechanism – Toothless Tiger or Hidden Dragon?” released this week. In order to better understand the […]

  • IN FOCUS: ERF auction looming, or just a nervous twitch?

    ERF Project Registrations: October 2014 – July 2015  AUCTION LOOMING, OR JUST A NERVOUS TWITCH? Over the past three weeks 73 projects have been registered under the Emissions Reduction Fund […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: ALP carbon zombies, a tax and an ETS

    The Daily Telegraph reported on Wednesday that the Australian Labor Party has drafted new plans to introduce a carbon tax, set to be discussed ahead of the ALP’s National Conference […]

  • IN FOCUS: Mind the (Australian Climate Policy) Gap

    In this edition, we take an In Focus look at the government’s approaching post-2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target announcement, specifically the impact of current government policy on Australia’s long-term […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: Australian GHG projections ‘overstated’

    Analysis indicates that Australia’s official greenhouse gas emissions projections – used by the government in its submission to the United Nations ahead of December’s climate conference in Paris – are […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: Expenditure lower than ERF allocation?

    The 2015-16 Federal Budget has maintained funding for the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) in line with its 2014-15 allocation, with expenditure not updated to account for longer delivery schedules for […]

  • MARKET INSIDER: ‘Far from near’ at Lima, stage set for 2015

    Over the past fortnight the eyes of the global community have been focused on the Lima climate conference, which, much like its predecessor, ended without any real progress towards a […]

  • ANALYST UPDATE: ERF Price discovery – bidding the “maximum”?

    While international pressure mounts on the Abbott government to step up its long term climate ambition, domestically the wheels are beginning to turn on the first ERF auction in March, […]