• The King Review: Government steps toward a ‘grey’ baseline and credit scheme

    The federal government today released the findings of its Expert Panel review (the King Review), accepting 21 of 26 recommendations to incentivise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement from industry. Below, […]

  • ACCU contract prices rise, but Regulator takes the low road at ERF Auction 10

    The 10th Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction purchased 1.7 million Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) at an average price of $16.14/t, an increase from record low levels of abatement contracted […]

  • UPDATE: Short- and long-term ACCU spot price impacts of COVID-19

    International carbon prices have tumbled amid fears that a COVID-19 induced economic downturn will curb industry demand for carbon allowances, causing a heavy sell-off by investors. In Europe, EUA prices […]

  • Wholesale electricity prices to fall, but renewable energy investment slump may hit

    Below, we summarise our latest forecast for wholesale electricity and Large-scale Generation Certificate (LGC) prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) 2020-40, contained in our quarterly Australian Electricity Outlook (AEO). […]

  • ALERT: Australian carbon price ends 2019 higher as climate policy pressure builds

    The Australian carbon spot price ended 2019 higher, trading between $17.20-30 in January, just under a 4-year high of $17.50/t recorded in November. The price of Australian Carbon Credit Units […]

  • ALERT: Australian carbon offset price hits 4-year high, more price increases ahead?

    The price of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) has continued its recent climb, reaching a four-year high of $17.50/t, in line with modelled clearing prices at the first ERF auction […]

  • Forecast ACCU prices under the Climate Solutions Fund – High road or the low road?

    In late February the Australian Government announced an additional $2 billion in funding for the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), rebranding the scheme the Climate Solutions Fund (CSF). The additional funding […]

  • ALERT: ACCUs in the NEG – A carbon price by any other name?

    NEG to establish ‘de facto’ carbon price and abatement pathway for power sector Assuming the effective design and implementation of a final policy framework, the government’s announced National Energy Guarantee […]

  • INSIGHTS: ACCU prices rise, but poor ERF result reflects negative market sentiment

    The fifth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction was held on April 5–6, with 31 contracts entered into by the Clean Energy Regulator (Regulator) for the delivery of just 11 million […]

  • INSIGHTS: Wide scope for climate policy review – Key considerations

    The Federal Government today released the Terms of Reference (ToR) for its climate policy review, with industry consultation to be held in February ahead of the formal reporting process from […]

  • Hunt out, Frydenberg in – Where to for the Coalition’s climate policy review?

    In short: Josh Frydenberg will head an expanded Energy and Environment Portfolio in place of outgoing minister Greg Hunt In our view, the change will better align climate change with […]

  • ‘Mega projects’ drive ERF close to floor, but price rebound ahead?

    The Clean Energy Regulator yesterday published the results of the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, with 50.47 million credits contracted at an average price of $10.23. In line with […]

  • IN FOCUS: Inside the Labor Party’s “Climate Change Action Plan” framework

    The ALP today released its “Climate Change Action Plan” policy, designed to establish a framework to meet Australia’s long-term emissions reduction obligations. The announcement comes following the signing of the […]

  • Average price likely to fall at third ERF auction, yet upside potential remains

    RepuTex today released its outlook for the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, presenting our ‘reference case’ estimates in line with our ERF Auction Simulation Tool. 290 projects are currently […]

  • Beware the “bid plateau” at ERF III – The risk of ‘bidding the average price’

    While on the surface, the first two ERF auctions appeared to be similar – contracting a comparable amount of ACCUs for a similar amount of money – analysis indicates that […]

  • What’s in store for the third Emissions Reduction Fund auction?

    While the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction had potential to be much larger than the first, high competition led to only 1 in 3 projects successfully winning contracts, with larger […]

  • ALERT: Goodbye CERs? Paris Accord may impact offset use

    After two decades of diplomatic promise and failed outcomes, the Paris COP has delivered a landmark agreement to limit global warming to below 2 degrees, beating expectations by delivering a […]

  • ALERT: Looking ahead to ERF III – Powering up…or Down?

    On Friday, Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced that the third Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will be held on April 27-28, with the Clean Energy Regulator also announcing that auction […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: Bidding set to begin at second ERF auction

    Bidding will open on Wednesday for the second Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction, which will run from November 4-5, operated by the Clean Energy Regulator. Below, we outline our expectations […]

  • ALERT: Same same, but different? The short & long-game

    Last night’s change of Liberal Party leadership and the elevation of new Prime Minister, Malcom Turnbull, is likely to have a range of implications for Australian climate policy. We examine […]

  • ALERT: Australia’s new post-2020 emissions target “weak”

    The Australian government has announced an emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. We view this figure as weak in that the government has failed […]

  • ALERT: Industry vs. CFI – Second ERF auction announced

    The Clean Energy Regulator today announced that the second Emissions Reduction Fund auction will take place on Wednesday November 4 and 5, 2015, in approximately 12 weeks. The cut-off date […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: ALP carbon zombies, a tax and an ETS

    The Daily Telegraph reported on Wednesday that the Australian Labor Party has drafted new plans to introduce a carbon tax, set to be discussed ahead of the ALP’s National Conference […]

  • ANALYST ALERT: Regulator To Walk the Tightrope at Auction 1

    Dear Subscriber, Next week’s first Emissions Reduction Fund auction looms as the moment-of-truth for the Federal Government – and the Clean Energy Regulator – with the outcome of the first […]