Carbon Market Update
UPDATE: Could LGCs deliver least cost external abatement for state policy design?
As states continue to work with industry towards achieving net zero GHG emissions targets, policymakers have sought to understand the cost and opportunity to reduce emissions across different sectors of […]
The marginal cost of net-zero emissions under the Paris Agreement
Australia has ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to ‘strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change’ by limiting the increase in the global average temperature to ‘well […]
UPDATE: Running to stand still – Industry baselines under the Safeguard Mechanism
A critical component of both the ALP and Coalition climate policy frameworks is the ‘Safeguard Mechanism’, requiring around 300 of Australia’s largest emitting industrial facilities (excluding the generation sector) to […]
Safeguard mechanism 2.0 – A carbon price under the ALP’s tighter baseline scheme
The ALP is expected to announce a plan to tighten the government’s safeguard mechanism framework, requiring Australia’s largest emitting industrial companies to reduce emissions to meet a 45% economy-wide emissions […]
EPA Provisions – Marginal cost and availability of offsetting LNG emissions in WA
The Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) has released strengthened policy guidance for high emitting projects to offset greenhouse gas emissions. RepuTex was engaged to model the ‘price’ and ‘type’ […]
Electrifying Victoria: The impact of election policy on wholesale prices
In the absence of a robust federal energy and climate policy framework, Australian states and territories continue to play an important role in shaping Australia’s energy transition. Ahead of the […]
UPDATE: The impact of a 26-45% NEG target on electricity prices to 2030
Modelling indicates that increased ambition under the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) will place downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) through to 2030. Under the […]
UPDATE: Carbon price may double to $35/t in 2030 for industry sector
With the electricity sector locked into the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), other sectors of the economy will be called on to contribute to Australia’s 2030 target, with high emitting energy, […]
UPDATE: Modelling the interaction between the NEG and State RETs
While initial modelling of the NEG has been undertaken for the Energy Security Board, to date, analysis is yet to fully consider the interaction between the proposed policy and state […]
Small ERF auction volumes to open window for high contract prices
The seventh Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction will take place next week (June 6-7), with $265 million remaining in the government’s $2.55bn fund. In line with our previous auction outlook, […]
Choose your own baseline – Industrial emissions and the Safeguard Mechanism
IN SHORT: High emitting industrial facilities covered by the ‘safeguard mechanism’ (excluding the generation sector) are projected to drive national emissions growth through to 2030, with companies given flexibility to […]
UPDATE: Outlook for ACCU supply and offset prices in Australia through to 2030
As discussion increases over the role of domestic and international carbon credits in Australia, in this update, we present our outlook for supply of Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) through […]
UPDATE: Uptick in volumes expected at sixth Emissions Reduction Fund auction
RepuTex today published its Outlook for the sixth ERF auction, to be held on December 6-7. In line with auction five, we believe negative sentiment will again undermine the sixth […]
Goodbye Gas, Hello Pumped Hydro – Liddell extension and the impact of Snowy 2.0
In the absence of a Clean Energy Target, the extension of Liddell and the expansion of the Snowy Hydro scheme represent the two core pillars of the government’s energy policy […]
REPORT: Setting the Clean Energy Target – Implications for industry & Australia’s 2030 target
The ambition of the government’s Clean Energy Target (CET) will not only establish the timeline for the phase out of emissions from Australia’s electricity sector, but will also have implications […]
REPORT: It’s the economics, stupid. Scenarios for the NEM wholesale price to 2030
In this update, we present our updated outlook for black and green wholesale electricity price in the NEM to 2030, accounting for current policy settings, along with scenarios for a […]
REPORT: Large-scale abatement potential of the Australian land sector
Analysis indicates that the abatement contribution of the Australian land sector has potential to be vast, with increased investment in land sequestration and tighter land clearing controls able to deliver […]
REPORT: Meeting a 2°C target – A marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for Australia
In becoming a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the federal government has accepted the risk of a significant future liability as Australia begins to transform its economy. At the same […]
REPORT: Scaling up the NEPP – Energy productivity a ‘silver bullet’ for Australia
Analysis indicates that the National Energy Productivity Plan (NEPP) can be aggressively applied in the immediate-term to deliver large scale emissions reductions at a negative marginal cost. In this way, […]
REPORT: The Energy Trilemma – A cost curve for abatement & energy storage in Australia
In this Market Update, we introduce our latest market study “An Energy Trilemma: A cost curve for emissions reductions & energy storage in the Australian electricity sector “, providing quantitative analysis […]
REPORT: Industry to the fore? Meeting Australia’s 2030 target without an EIS
While the government has ruled out an emissions intensity scheme (EIS) for the power sector, the continued operation of the federal Renewable Energy Target (RET) – and state renewable targets […]
REPORT: Low ERF price environment slows ACCU supply
The fourth Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) auction was held on the 16 and 17 November 2016, with 47 contracts entered into by the Clean Energy Regulator (Regulator) for the delivery […]
White Paper: Framing Australia’s Energy & Climate Policy to 2030
Following the release of the Climate Change Authority’s Special Review, which proposed a ‘toolkit’ of measures to meet Australia’s emissions target – but made few detailed recommendations – in this […]
Going back to go forward? The road to climate bi-partisanship in the 2016-19 Parliament
The 2016-19 Federal Parliament will play a major role in defining Australia’s long-term climate policy framework, with the major parties expected to work towards policy bipartisanship, and market certainty, as […]
Market Update: Australian emissions rise to 3 per cent above 2000 levels
In early May, the Department of Environment released Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA) for 2014, containing Australia’s national greenhouse gas emissions for 1990-2014, our official submission to the United Nations […]
Powering Down? Electricity price impacts of coal generation exit from the NEM
In order to meet Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target, a significant change in the operation of the electricity sector will be required, driving the decarbonisation of the National Electricity Market […]
Australia’s “low-cost” ACCU Opportunity – Our ACCU Supply Cost Curve
While the government has set a modest target to reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a common assumption is that it is not possible – […]
Government rhetoric – not policy – is key regulatory impediment
Ahead of the federal election, climate policy remains an Achilles heel for the Coalition, with Australia’s growing national emissions profile, and the prospect of a 9-12 month demand gap over […]
No peak in sight? National emissions climb through 2020
The government’s latest emissions projections were released in late December, along with an update to the NGGI for FY 2014-15, providing more detailed insight into the downgrading of Australia’s abatement […]
Back to the Future? The ALP’s “soft-start” Emissions Trading Scheme
Following the release of its indicative target to reduce emissions by 45 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) is expected to provide further detail […]